September 1, 2011
Given the volatility and related uncertainty in the market I felt it might be worthwhile to provide an update. I send out quarterly letters to this end, but with the recent turmoil in the markets a mid-quarter update seems appropriate.
Recession in the US The global economy is clearly slowing down. Worried about inflation, China in particular has stated a desire to put a brake on growth, and that seems to be working. Governments in the US and Europe would like to speed things up but have few tools at their disposal. France reported zero GDP growth for the second quarter, and the slowdown in China has been noted by exporters in Germany. Closer to home, estimates for US year over year GDP growth have been reduced to around 2% for 2011. Economists are now saying there is a 30% or 50% chance of a recession. That seems a bit too exact for a profession that got the last recession exactly wrong and brings to mind John Kenneth Galbraith’s comment that “the function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable”, but let’s just assumes there is a chance of a recession. Accepting the probabilities above we can then assume there is also a 50% to 70% chance that we avoid a recession. In the summer economic activity slows and it may be that is all that we are experiencing right now. We could see a reacceleration come September, helped by lower interest rates and oil prices, especially if China backs off some of its recent tightening moves.
Financial Crisis in Europe
Concern about where the US economy is headed is clearly influencing stocks prices. However, the 4% and 5% swings in the market witnessed over the last few weeks suggest that something more is at play than the risk we slip from low growth into recession. And these swings have little to do with the S&P downgrade of the US, Treasury bonds actually rallied on the downgrade news. It appears to me that the bigger issue is fear that the world is headed for another financial crisis, one similar to what we saw in 2008, but this time sourced out of Europe. As discussed extensively during the last recession, and best described in the book “It’s Different this Time”, recessions caused by the failure of the financial system are much deeper than ones caused by other forces, say the Fed tightening (1991) to slow inflation, or a period of overinvestment (2001) that needs to be digested. A financial crisis is when banks stop doing business with each other, and because of the interlinked nature of the global financial system, a financial meltdown in Europe would be felt elsewhere. Just two examples, US money market funds are major lenders to European banks, and Deutsche Bank and Soceite Generale of France are two of the biggest counterparties behind the derivatives contracts found in many ETF’s.
Europe’s banks face a situation that is similar to what the US banks experienced three years ago. Too much money has been lent to too many people who can’t possibly pay it back. In this case the loans went to subprime countries and not subprime homebuyers. At some point this debt will have to be written down to reflect reality, or assumed by some other entity. Financial Crisis II begins if the banks can’t offload their sovereign debt or have to write it down without an injection of capital. Pressure is building on the banks, today’s newspapers carried the story that authorities are questioning why some banks value their Greek debt at 85 cents to the dollar while that same debt trades in the market at 50 cents. The International Monetary Fund estimates that marking European sovereign debt to market would put a $287 bn hole in Europeans banks’ balance sheets.
After Sixty-Five Years Germany Wins by Default
Europe as a whole has the resources to deal with the crisis. The problem is they do not have a central government, or a powerful central bank that can step into the breach in the same way the Fed and the US Treasury did. All the Europeans have right now is the Germans – with an economy one-third bigger than the next largest economy in Europe and possessing the largest pool of savings. Europe will avoid crisis if the government in Berlin decides to end it, a fact that has created political paralysis across Europe. Of course the US suffers from political paralysis too, but perhaps only from the waist down relative to the full body paralysis of the Europeans. There is at least vigorous debate in this country, and TARP and the auto bailouts got done despite distaste for both from all involved. In Europe there is denial and silence. No one wants to see German Finance Ministry officials arriving in the capitals of southern Europe with detailed plans about how these countries will pay them back.
However, something not too far from the scenario above might happen. Consensus seems to forming around the idea that to prevent a financial crisis and to keep the euro as the common currency for all 17 countries that currently use it, requires the creation of “Eurobonds”. Bonds that would not be guaranteed by the individual countries that issues them, but instead jointly guaranteed by all euro-zone members. No fools, the German tax payers know this means the burden of the guarantee falls on them. Without a Eurobond some unknown number of countries will default. More than likely Greece and Portugal would be the first to go. When they need to refinance maturing debt they will find no buyers for their bonds. In fact there haven’t been buyers for their bonds since the start of the year. To date the European Central Bank has filled the void, but at some point they will run out of capacity. Default would ultimately lead to a country abandoning the euro. Newly printed drachmas, escudos, and punts would be issued and would devalue instantaneously against the euro, allowing these countries to become more competitive again. This is how it used to work pre the 1993 introduction of the euro when the drachma, lira, peseta, escudo and punt devalued annually vs. the Deutsche mark.
What is particularly concerning about one country leaving the euro is that you do not know what will follow. If Greece and Portugal go are they followed by Ireland? Can it stop there, or do big countries like Spain and Italy go? Will we see the return of the lira and peseta? Together Spain and Italy are the same size as Germany in terms of GDP, and their combined debt is much higher. There are no good options. No one wants the Germans to bail out the rest of Europe, especially the Germans, and no one wants to see the end of the euro. Expect inaction for some time.
Conclusion – Defending the Indefensible before giving up to the Inevitable
Because of the uncertainty of what would happen if the Euro zone crumbled, I place a higher probability that the Germans will step up than on the return of the drachma. The Germans also understand that they have been beneficiaries of the Euro. Many more BMWs were sold in Greece, Italy and Spain after the introduction of the Euro than before it. But it could take a long time for German politicians to lead their country in that direction. In the meantime I expect financial markets will remain volatile.
At SSCA Newport cash levels right now are high, and bonds are 15% to 25% of portfolios. I have incorrectly been negative on bonds, particularly US Treasuries, but believe it is important to have some exposure, and that exposure has been beneficial. Stocks still look like very good value.
As noted in my last letter, there are companies that have better balance sheets and growth outlooks than most western governments. They also pay you in dividends more than what the US, German, British or Japanese governments are willing to pay you to buy their debt. I would use rallies to lower bank stock positions, and selloffs to buy high quality global consumer brand companies. These are companies that can maintain/ grow earnings in a low growth environment and maybe through a recession. Non-life insurance stocks which have their own cycle look attractive. Some healthcare stocks offer good earnings growth in a slowing economy. Investing in pipelines that bring newly discovered shale gas to market also seems like a winner.
As always, if you have any questions please call or email.
Lowell Thomas
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
Thursday, September 8, 2011
Second Quarter 2011 Investment Commentary from South Shore Capital Advisors Cohasset
Investment Outlook
After a very strong Q1 for financial markets, second quarter returns were more subdued. It was a quarter marked by more cross currents than any other in recent memory. The generally favorable news on corporate performance that was delivered in the form of strong First Quarter financial results was offset by headline data about slowing economic growth in the U.S. and fears about the impact that a Greek default would have on the global financial system.
More than the economic data, what troubled markets in my opinion was the relentless stream of headlines relating to government and central bank intervention in global economies.
Eurozone President Jean Claude Juncker (also President of Luxembourg) may have delivered the single statement that best captured the essence of what investors faced during the past quarter and that remains a challenge today. The Wall Street Journal reported that in April Juncker had said in addressing a gathering on the topic of financial crises “When it becomes serious, you have to lie.” This statement attracted not very much attention until early May when Juncker proved to be a man of his word. His office issued first a denial, and then a confirmation that a meeting of key European finance ministers had occurred to discuss the Greek situation on May 6th. Certainly misinformation has been passed along in many instances over the years, but for someone of Juncker’s stature to so boldly admit it seems particularly in keeping with the times.
David Viniar, Goldman Sachs Chief Financial Officer captured well the sentiment of many market participants in his comments on the firm’s 2nd quarter earnings conference call. He said “a lot of what is happening in the markets, at least it felt that way to us, were [sic] not driven by the underlying economic issues but by political issues. Markets were moving based on statements. That’s very hard for us to analyze and we found it hard to take advantage of.
The good news is that corporate performance remains strong. According to Standard & Poor’s, of S&P 500 index companies reporting their 2nd quarters so far, 74% have surpassed expectations. Further, after declining to 14.1% growth from 16.6% in the 1st quarter, year on year earnings growth is expected to reaccelerate in the second half to 16.4% in the 3rd quarter and 19.8% growth in the 4th. In another healthy sign, capital expenditures by companies in the S&P 500 grew 46% in the first quarter versus the first quarter of 2010.
A few changes to client portfolios that were made in a broad fashion during the second quarter were as follows:
1. The sale of the closed end funds John Hancock Bank & Thrift Opportunity Fund (BTO) and the Hambrecht & Quist Healthcare Investors (HQH). Both had seen their discounts to Net Asset Value decline (a good thing) since they were initially included in client portfolios over a year ago.
2. Purchase of Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA). This Israeli based company is the world’s largest producer of generic drugs. Its management has a long track record of successfully consolidating acquisitions, and they are in the midst of two significant such consolidations right now. These will offer them plenty of opportunities to grow earnings through cost cutting. Also, the generic drug industry is poised for significant growth over the next several years as certain major drugs lose their patent protection and government involvement in health care spending increases.
3. Purchase of Royal Bank of Canada (RY). This Canadian bank is extremely well capitalized and its loan book is solid. They never cut their dividend during the financial crisis and they recently raised it for the first time in several years. The current dividend yield is a well covered 4.06%.
4. Purchase of Anglo American (AAUKY). In addition to iron ore and copper mining, this South African mining company owns 45% of diamond producer DeBeers, and accounts for 40% of global platinum production. Diamond prices have recovered well since the recession and platinum possesses attractive leverage to automotive demand. Auto sales are expected to continue to grow thanks to the rising middle class in emerging markets and ongoing economic recovery in the U.S. The business generates enormous free cash flow, and thanks to that the company will most likely be debt free and positioned to expand its dividend payments and share repurchase by year end.
Thank you for your continued support. Our business grows by referrals and has expanded from $5 million in assets under management in 2007 to almost $29 million as of today for an annual growth rate of over 50%. We continue to believe that globally diversified balanced portfolios are appropriate for most individuals. We carefully research the securities in our clients’ accounts, and the clients enjoy the benefits of liquidity and transparency of their holdings.
Sincerely,
Taylor Thomas
Principal
As of 9/8/2011 South Shore Capital Advisors clients and its employees are holders of all of the above mentioned stocks. This content is provided for information purposes only and is not intended as research. Investing involves the risk of loss. South Shore Capital Advisors is a boutique registered investment advisory firm with offices in Cohasset MA, and Newport, R.I. For more information about South Shore Capital Advisors go to the link "About South Shore Capital Advisors" at the top of this page.
Thursday, May 19, 2011
First Quarter 2011 Investment Commentary from South Shore Capital Advisors Cohasset
Provided below is the first quarter 2011 quartlerly investment comments from the South Shore Capital Advisors Cohasset Office. Since this piece was written in early April, there have been more positive data released relative to corporate performance in the U.S. Standard & Poor's pointed out recently that q1 2011 was the first quarter since q1 2006 where S&P 500 companies reported sales growth greather than +10% versus the prior year. The percentage of companies delivering positive surprise relative to expectations for earnings and sales growth also remains very favorable.
Investing Climate
Had I known in advance that the 1st quarter of 2011 would see the price of oil rise 17%, the price of gasoline at the pump rise from $2.82 to $3.85,[1] and the 10 Year Treasury bond yield rise from 3.30% to 3.47%, I would have reduced stock holdings and prepared for a pullback in the market. Had someone told me that there would be a major earthquake in Japan that would cut 0.5%[2] from Japanese GDP forecasts, and major political and social turmoil in northern Africa; I might have sold even more stock. Lacking such “good” information we purchased more stock for clients early in the quarter, and raised equity weightings, a move that turned out just fine given the S&P 500’s 5.42% advance.
Last quarter reminded us that it is hard to make accurate predictions, and harder still to make winning investment decisions based on such predictions. That is why we focus on fundamentals. We like stocks of companies with strong balance sheets and attractive levels of free cash flow. In the realm of bonds we look for individual issues or funds that offer an attractive real return and acceptable risk.
At the end of last quarter, I pointed out that stocks were still a good deal, particularly in relation to bonds, and were likely to be the better bet for price appreciation. I still feel that way. With Standard & Poor’s estimating 2011 earnings of $96.64[3], and an index close of 1324 on 4/11/11, the valuation of the S&P 500 remains reasonable at 13.7x earnings particularly given low inflation and interest rates.
Corporate performance remains strong as companies continue to beat earnings expectations amidst this unprecedented earnings recovery. According to Bloomberg, by mid summer 2011, profits will have recovered their entire 92% decline in 50 months. This compares to the 19 years it took for profits to recover from their 67% drop during the Great Depression.[4]
Extremely low real interest rates are a notable aspect of the current environment. Central banks have engineered this by keeping their policy rates low to stimulate economic activity. Just how low are they?
Right now there are only 5 countries in the G20 where a holder of the currency can make a cash return greater than the level of inflation. This was a key factor in our decision to purchase one year Australian Government bonds in mid February funding that with a sale of US Treasury Inflation Protected Securities that offer near record low real yields of -0.1% for a 5 year bond.[5] Those one year Aussie Bonds give us an almost 2% premium versus Australian inflation and very limited risk of principal loss from rising interest rates
Another purchase last quarter was the stock of Renaissance RE (RNR). A Bermuda based reinsurance company that is a traditionally profitable underwriter with a stock that was trading near book value. The company is engaged in a large effort to return capital to its shareholders through stock repurchases. From a starting point of January 1, 2010, it is likely that shareholders will see them return over 20% of their current $4.5 billion market capitalization through stock purchases. At the beginning of the year, the underwriting environment for property and catastrophe reinsurance was uncertain, but we bought the stock based on its valuation and the fact that the business generates a lot of cash that they are returning to shareholders. Since then, the market for P&C reinsurance has tightened because of the losses from the earthquake and tsunami in Japan. RNR will likely experience manageable losses from this, but will be able to charge higher premiums on new business as industry capital conditions tighten. In future quarters investment income RNR earns on its substantial cash balances should increase as real interest rates rise.
Worth mentioning here is AT&T, a stock that has been in portfolios for a long time. What drew us to AT&T was its dominant industry position in telecom, accompanied by a strong free cash flow yield of 10%, and a consistently growing wireless business. It has been a cheap stock for a long time because its wireline telephone business is in perpetual decline. What made it attractive were a growing wireless business and an affluent subscriber base who love their Iphones. In March, AT&T announced the purchase of T Mobile from Deutsche Telecom – the deal will transform the company from a 50/50 wireless/wireline TelCo to a truly wireless-first carrier that receives 80% of its revenue from wireless and wireless data. Spectrum acquired from T-Mobile will position the company for long term revenue growth and cost savings from the deal will fund faster future earnings growth.[6]
Looking ahead, many folks are inclined to worry about what impact the end of the Federal Reserve Quantitative Easing 2 program will have. I am among this group. But as pointed out earlier in the letter, departing from a focus on fundamentals may not be productive. Therefore, over the coming months I expect to continue to monitor the business performance of our current holdings while watching for new opportunities and keeping duration short in the bond portfolio because I do want to be prepared for rising interest rates.
Please feel free call me if you have any questions.
Sincerely,
Taylor Thomas
Principal
[1] Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Quarterly Energy Update, 1Q 2011
[2] Credit Suisse Japanese GDP Growth Forecast, 4/7/2011
[3] Standard and Poor’s Estimate
[4] Bloomberg, Rita Nazareth and Michael Patterson, April 4th, 2011
[5] Us Treasury.Gov Daily Treasury Real Yield Curve Rates for 4/12/11
[6] Sanford Bernstein Research
As of 5/19/2011 South Shore Capital Advisors clients and its employees are holders of Rennaissance Reinsurance and AT&T. This content is provided for information purposes only and is not intended as research. Investing involves the risk of loss. South Shore Capital Advisors is a boutique registered investment advisory firm with offices in Cohasset MA, and Newport, R.I. For more information about South Shore Capital Advisors go to the link "About South Shore Capital Advisors" at the top of this page.
Investing Climate
Had I known in advance that the 1st quarter of 2011 would see the price of oil rise 17%, the price of gasoline at the pump rise from $2.82 to $3.85,[1] and the 10 Year Treasury bond yield rise from 3.30% to 3.47%, I would have reduced stock holdings and prepared for a pullback in the market. Had someone told me that there would be a major earthquake in Japan that would cut 0.5%[2] from Japanese GDP forecasts, and major political and social turmoil in northern Africa; I might have sold even more stock. Lacking such “good” information we purchased more stock for clients early in the quarter, and raised equity weightings, a move that turned out just fine given the S&P 500’s 5.42% advance.
Last quarter reminded us that it is hard to make accurate predictions, and harder still to make winning investment decisions based on such predictions. That is why we focus on fundamentals. We like stocks of companies with strong balance sheets and attractive levels of free cash flow. In the realm of bonds we look for individual issues or funds that offer an attractive real return and acceptable risk.
At the end of last quarter, I pointed out that stocks were still a good deal, particularly in relation to bonds, and were likely to be the better bet for price appreciation. I still feel that way. With Standard & Poor’s estimating 2011 earnings of $96.64[3], and an index close of 1324 on 4/11/11, the valuation of the S&P 500 remains reasonable at 13.7x earnings particularly given low inflation and interest rates.
Corporate performance remains strong as companies continue to beat earnings expectations amidst this unprecedented earnings recovery. According to Bloomberg, by mid summer 2011, profits will have recovered their entire 92% decline in 50 months. This compares to the 19 years it took for profits to recover from their 67% drop during the Great Depression.[4]
Extremely low real interest rates are a notable aspect of the current environment. Central banks have engineered this by keeping their policy rates low to stimulate economic activity. Just how low are they?
Right now there are only 5 countries in the G20 where a holder of the currency can make a cash return greater than the level of inflation. This was a key factor in our decision to purchase one year Australian Government bonds in mid February funding that with a sale of US Treasury Inflation Protected Securities that offer near record low real yields of -0.1% for a 5 year bond.[5] Those one year Aussie Bonds give us an almost 2% premium versus Australian inflation and very limited risk of principal loss from rising interest rates
Another purchase last quarter was the stock of Renaissance RE (RNR). A Bermuda based reinsurance company that is a traditionally profitable underwriter with a stock that was trading near book value. The company is engaged in a large effort to return capital to its shareholders through stock repurchases. From a starting point of January 1, 2010, it is likely that shareholders will see them return over 20% of their current $4.5 billion market capitalization through stock purchases. At the beginning of the year, the underwriting environment for property and catastrophe reinsurance was uncertain, but we bought the stock based on its valuation and the fact that the business generates a lot of cash that they are returning to shareholders. Since then, the market for P&C reinsurance has tightened because of the losses from the earthquake and tsunami in Japan. RNR will likely experience manageable losses from this, but will be able to charge higher premiums on new business as industry capital conditions tighten. In future quarters investment income RNR earns on its substantial cash balances should increase as real interest rates rise.
Worth mentioning here is AT&T, a stock that has been in portfolios for a long time. What drew us to AT&T was its dominant industry position in telecom, accompanied by a strong free cash flow yield of 10%, and a consistently growing wireless business. It has been a cheap stock for a long time because its wireline telephone business is in perpetual decline. What made it attractive were a growing wireless business and an affluent subscriber base who love their Iphones. In March, AT&T announced the purchase of T Mobile from Deutsche Telecom – the deal will transform the company from a 50/50 wireless/wireline TelCo to a truly wireless-first carrier that receives 80% of its revenue from wireless and wireless data. Spectrum acquired from T-Mobile will position the company for long term revenue growth and cost savings from the deal will fund faster future earnings growth.[6]
Looking ahead, many folks are inclined to worry about what impact the end of the Federal Reserve Quantitative Easing 2 program will have. I am among this group. But as pointed out earlier in the letter, departing from a focus on fundamentals may not be productive. Therefore, over the coming months I expect to continue to monitor the business performance of our current holdings while watching for new opportunities and keeping duration short in the bond portfolio because I do want to be prepared for rising interest rates.
Please feel free call me if you have any questions.
Sincerely,
Taylor Thomas
Principal
[1] Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Quarterly Energy Update, 1Q 2011
[2] Credit Suisse Japanese GDP Growth Forecast, 4/7/2011
[3] Standard and Poor’s Estimate
[4] Bloomberg, Rita Nazareth and Michael Patterson, April 4th, 2011
[5] Us Treasury.Gov Daily Treasury Real Yield Curve Rates for 4/12/11
[6] Sanford Bernstein Research
As of 5/19/2011 South Shore Capital Advisors clients and its employees are holders of Rennaissance Reinsurance and AT&T. This content is provided for information purposes only and is not intended as research. Investing involves the risk of loss. South Shore Capital Advisors is a boutique registered investment advisory firm with offices in Cohasset MA, and Newport, R.I. For more information about South Shore Capital Advisors go to the link "About South Shore Capital Advisors" at the top of this page.
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
4th Quarter 2010 Quarterly Letter to Clients of South Shore Capital Advisors Cohasset
Provided below is the main body of the 4th Quarter 2010 Quarterly Letter recently mailed to clients of South Shore Capital Advisors' Cohasset office.
Investing Climate:
A generally improving business environment, and growth-friendly news out of Washington during the 4th quarter allowed investors to feel more comfortable putting money to work in the stock market, and less willing to accept the “return free risk” of sub 3% bond yields. Throughout the quarter with each passing week, buying stocks was rewarded with more good news about economic growth here at home.
The big developments in Washington during the 4th quarter were:
1. Quantitative Easing II: The renewed and expanded initiatives undertaken by the Federal Reserve to purchase government bonds that will see them purchase $600 billion in treasury bonds in the open market between November, 2010 and June, 2011.
2. Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010: The aggressive fiscal stimulus measures passed by Congress through its extension of the Bush Era tax cuts for two more years, the extension of unemployment benefits, and the reduction in payroll taxes from 6.2% to 4.2% for 2011.
The move to cut payroll taxes by 2% was unexpected, and it will be a shot in the arm for the 2011 economy. The Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that this will save Americans $111.7 billion for the year - roughly $370 for each of our 300 million people. The employed will experience the direct benefit of this. For that 90% of the 154 million U.S. workforce, the benefit will be about $800 apiece.
Human nature is such that when a stock or bond goes up in price people want to own more of it even though it is now more expensive. Nowhere during the past few years has this been more on display than the bond market. According to a recent article in Fortune, since the depth of the 2008 financial crisis in September 2008, a total of $937 billion has poured into bond funds – increasing the total investment in those funds by 55% and dwarfing the $195 billion that has flowed into stock funds over the same period. (“The Danger In Bonds”, Fortune, Dec. 27, 2010 p. 108) In my view bonds have become less attractive investments over this time, particularly bonds with longer durations that have prices more sensitive to changes in interest rates. I have reduced the duration of client bond portfolios and I am proceeding cautiously with allocations to that asset class.
When I look at client portfolios, I am heartened by the fact that stocks, which are the majority of most of our client assets, are still a good deal. Even after the market rise of over 80% from the lows in March 2009, there are still high quality companies with strong balance sheets, excellent free cash flow, and rising dividends that can be purchased at attractive prices. On current 2011 earnings projections of $94.80, the S&P 500 is trading at a 13.5 multiple. This equates to an earnings yield (earnings/price) of 7.4% versus a 10 year U.S. treasury yield that is right now around 3.4%. As a broad statement, this gap between the earnings yield and the bond yield makes stocks the better bet for price appreciation during 2011.
In addition to good value, business performance supports the case for owning stocks, as many companies continue to deliver earnings that are better than forecast, and estimates for next year’s earnings continue to rise. According to Standard & Poor’s, for the 3rd quarter 2010, 326 of the 500 companies in the index delivered stronger than expected earnings and analysts continue to raise their earnings forecasts for 2011.
Portfolio Comments:
Recently, two companies were added to your portfolio - Becton Dickinson and Canadian Oil Sands Limited.
Becton Dickinson (BDX) is a maker of hypodermic needles, syringes and test equipment for doctors. Over the past several years Becton had paid down its debt to a point where it was virtually debt free. It is a dominant player in its business and its products are non-discretionary purchases. In October, they decided to take advantage of low interest rates by borrowing $1 billion that they will use to repurchase their own inexpensive stock. They borrowed this money for 30 years at 5%. Over the next 12 months I expect them to buy $1.5 billion dollars worth of their own shares. If the company purchased all the stock at today’s $83 price, we shareholders would get an 8% raise even if their earnings do not grow at all. If next year is like any of the last 10 years, they will grow their operating income too, so earnings per share should grow more than 10%.
Canadian Oil Sands Limited (COSWF) is an energy company that generates substantial and growing cash flow as long as the price of oil remains high. The business’s asset is a 37% ownership of the Canadian Oil Sands joint venture known as Syncrude. Through this ownership, Canadian Oil Sands Limited controls between 40 and 80 years of crude oil reserves. It is costly to produce oil from oil sands, but becomes rapidly more profitable as the price of oil rises. At $80 oil, management has said that they expect to generate $2.35 per share in cash flow this year. At today’s $90 oil they will earn closer to $3.00 per share in cash flow. Its cash flows will be more volatile than those of Becton Dickinson, but an investment in oil is an investment in long term global growth. Global energy demand is expected to increase by 30% between now and 2020 with the lion’s share coming from faster growing developing economies. With a $13 billion enterprise value, the company trades at a substantial discount to what the Chinese entity Sinopec paid for Conoco Philips’ stake in Syncrude this past summer. A buyer paying Sinopec’s price of $515 million for each 1% of Syncrude would need to pay approximately $18 billion for Canadian Oil Sands shares or about 50% more than where the stock trades today. Speculating on a sale of the business is all “pie in the sky,” but since Canadian Oil Sands Limited is no longer a Canadian Income Trust as of December 31st, foreign holders can own more than 50% of the business leaving the door open for this.
Between now end the end of the 1st quarter, you will most likely receive another mailing from South Shore Capital Advisors that contains our revised SEC Form ADV Part II. The new financial regulations require us to revise these documents so that they are written in “plain English.” Our lawyers wrote the last ADV part II before that law was in place, and it could use a little editing in my opinion.
Please give me a call if you have any questions about your portfolio or if there have been any changes to your circumstances that warrant a fresh look at your investment strategy.
Sincerely,
Taylor Thomas
As of 1/25/2011 South Shore Capital Advisors clients and its employees are holders of Becton Dickinson and Canadian Oil Sands Limited. This content is provided for information purposes only and is not intended as research. Investing involves the risk of loss. South Shore Capital Advisors is a boutique registered investment advisory firm with offices in Cohasset MA, and Newport, R.I. For more information about South Shore Capital Advisors go to the link "About South Shore Capital Advisors" at the top of this page.
Investing Climate:
A generally improving business environment, and growth-friendly news out of Washington during the 4th quarter allowed investors to feel more comfortable putting money to work in the stock market, and less willing to accept the “return free risk” of sub 3% bond yields. Throughout the quarter with each passing week, buying stocks was rewarded with more good news about economic growth here at home.
The big developments in Washington during the 4th quarter were:
1. Quantitative Easing II: The renewed and expanded initiatives undertaken by the Federal Reserve to purchase government bonds that will see them purchase $600 billion in treasury bonds in the open market between November, 2010 and June, 2011.
2. Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010: The aggressive fiscal stimulus measures passed by Congress through its extension of the Bush Era tax cuts for two more years, the extension of unemployment benefits, and the reduction in payroll taxes from 6.2% to 4.2% for 2011.
The move to cut payroll taxes by 2% was unexpected, and it will be a shot in the arm for the 2011 economy. The Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that this will save Americans $111.7 billion for the year - roughly $370 for each of our 300 million people. The employed will experience the direct benefit of this. For that 90% of the 154 million U.S. workforce, the benefit will be about $800 apiece.
Human nature is such that when a stock or bond goes up in price people want to own more of it even though it is now more expensive. Nowhere during the past few years has this been more on display than the bond market. According to a recent article in Fortune, since the depth of the 2008 financial crisis in September 2008, a total of $937 billion has poured into bond funds – increasing the total investment in those funds by 55% and dwarfing the $195 billion that has flowed into stock funds over the same period. (“The Danger In Bonds”, Fortune, Dec. 27, 2010 p. 108) In my view bonds have become less attractive investments over this time, particularly bonds with longer durations that have prices more sensitive to changes in interest rates. I have reduced the duration of client bond portfolios and I am proceeding cautiously with allocations to that asset class.
When I look at client portfolios, I am heartened by the fact that stocks, which are the majority of most of our client assets, are still a good deal. Even after the market rise of over 80% from the lows in March 2009, there are still high quality companies with strong balance sheets, excellent free cash flow, and rising dividends that can be purchased at attractive prices. On current 2011 earnings projections of $94.80, the S&P 500 is trading at a 13.5 multiple. This equates to an earnings yield (earnings/price) of 7.4% versus a 10 year U.S. treasury yield that is right now around 3.4%. As a broad statement, this gap between the earnings yield and the bond yield makes stocks the better bet for price appreciation during 2011.
In addition to good value, business performance supports the case for owning stocks, as many companies continue to deliver earnings that are better than forecast, and estimates for next year’s earnings continue to rise. According to Standard & Poor’s, for the 3rd quarter 2010, 326 of the 500 companies in the index delivered stronger than expected earnings and analysts continue to raise their earnings forecasts for 2011.
Portfolio Comments:
Recently, two companies were added to your portfolio - Becton Dickinson and Canadian Oil Sands Limited.
Becton Dickinson (BDX) is a maker of hypodermic needles, syringes and test equipment for doctors. Over the past several years Becton had paid down its debt to a point where it was virtually debt free. It is a dominant player in its business and its products are non-discretionary purchases. In October, they decided to take advantage of low interest rates by borrowing $1 billion that they will use to repurchase their own inexpensive stock. They borrowed this money for 30 years at 5%. Over the next 12 months I expect them to buy $1.5 billion dollars worth of their own shares. If the company purchased all the stock at today’s $83 price, we shareholders would get an 8% raise even if their earnings do not grow at all. If next year is like any of the last 10 years, they will grow their operating income too, so earnings per share should grow more than 10%.
Canadian Oil Sands Limited (COSWF) is an energy company that generates substantial and growing cash flow as long as the price of oil remains high. The business’s asset is a 37% ownership of the Canadian Oil Sands joint venture known as Syncrude. Through this ownership, Canadian Oil Sands Limited controls between 40 and 80 years of crude oil reserves. It is costly to produce oil from oil sands, but becomes rapidly more profitable as the price of oil rises. At $80 oil, management has said that they expect to generate $2.35 per share in cash flow this year. At today’s $90 oil they will earn closer to $3.00 per share in cash flow. Its cash flows will be more volatile than those of Becton Dickinson, but an investment in oil is an investment in long term global growth. Global energy demand is expected to increase by 30% between now and 2020 with the lion’s share coming from faster growing developing economies. With a $13 billion enterprise value, the company trades at a substantial discount to what the Chinese entity Sinopec paid for Conoco Philips’ stake in Syncrude this past summer. A buyer paying Sinopec’s price of $515 million for each 1% of Syncrude would need to pay approximately $18 billion for Canadian Oil Sands shares or about 50% more than where the stock trades today. Speculating on a sale of the business is all “pie in the sky,” but since Canadian Oil Sands Limited is no longer a Canadian Income Trust as of December 31st, foreign holders can own more than 50% of the business leaving the door open for this.
Between now end the end of the 1st quarter, you will most likely receive another mailing from South Shore Capital Advisors that contains our revised SEC Form ADV Part II. The new financial regulations require us to revise these documents so that they are written in “plain English.” Our lawyers wrote the last ADV part II before that law was in place, and it could use a little editing in my opinion.
Please give me a call if you have any questions about your portfolio or if there have been any changes to your circumstances that warrant a fresh look at your investment strategy.
Sincerely,
Taylor Thomas
As of 1/25/2011 South Shore Capital Advisors clients and its employees are holders of Becton Dickinson and Canadian Oil Sands Limited. This content is provided for information purposes only and is not intended as research. Investing involves the risk of loss. South Shore Capital Advisors is a boutique registered investment advisory firm with offices in Cohasset MA, and Newport, R.I. For more information about South Shore Capital Advisors go to the link "About South Shore Capital Advisors" at the top of this page.
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